Marriage and divorce during a pandemic: the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on marital formation and dissolution in Mexico

In this study, we consider the initial effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on family formation and dissolution. We use national microdata covering all marriages and divorces in Mexico, an event-study design and a difference-in-difference specification. Our findings indicate that over March through December of 2020, marriage rates declined by 54% and divorce rates by 43%. By the end of 2020, divorce rates recover back to baseline levels, but marriage rates remain 30% below the 2017–2019 baseline level. Overall, our findings suggest that marital dissolutions quickly recovered (6 months into the pandemic), but at the end of 2020, family formation remained at persistently lower levels.