Shifts in property crime patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico

Objectives: To estimate the dynamic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on property crime in Mexico. We do so for a longer time horizon than the existing literature and for two types of property crime: on-line and on-site. Methods: A retrospective ecological analysis during the COVID-19 pandemic using an event study methodology. This paper uses administrative data from Mexico’s National Public Security System from January 2017 to December 2022. Our data is structured as a monthly series covering all 2457 Mexican municipalities. Results: We find heterogeneity in the pandemic’s impact by type of property crime and a dynamic, permanent effect for both types of property crime. Namely, our results point to a drop and quick recovery of fraud—property crime mostly committed on-line—, which in the medium run surpasses pre-pandemic levels by 44%. Further, our results point to a significant drop in robbery, theft, domestic burglary, and motor vehicle theft—all property crimes committed on-site—, with a slight recovery after the end of the national lockdown, even though rates for these crimes never reached pre-pandemic levels. Conclusions: The 2020 pandemic caused a permanent shift in property crime from on-site to on-line spaces. Potential mechanisms point to disruptions in mobility in retail and recreational areas, residential zones, and workplaces as important mediating factors.